The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagleypublished in USA Today on Wednesdays.
While betting on sports is only legal in a few places inFollowing the first week of college football action,
the United States, such as Las Vegas, millions ofhere are some facts that interested me about
office workers are involved in sports pools everySagarin's first-week ratings:
week now that the football season has arrived.1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre teams in
When you know that more than $700 million can bethe country the last several years, was rated No. 31
bet on one gamethe Super Bowlin only Lasafter hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home opener.
Vegas, then you understand that billions were bet2) Michigan State, another short end of the stick
illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the Unitedteam for far too long, was rated No. 36 after
States and in offshore sports books around thesteamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home opener.
world.3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated No. 38
Folks in the gaming business know that more than afollowing its upset of mighty Michigan 34-32 on
billion dollars is wagered on every Monday NightMichigan's home field. The win was the biggest upset
Football game during the season.in college football history as no AA team had ever
For those who wager, it may be helpful to put somebeaten a ranked team.
science on your side when you wager, and one ofMichigan was ranked No. 5 by both the AP Poll and
the best places to do that is with the Sagarin CollegeCoaches Poll going into the game. Following its
Football Ratings.horrendous loss, Michigan ended up being ranked No.
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT mathematics40 by Sagarin.
graduate, these computer ratings are for Division I-A4) Wyoming, a small school and never among the
(what the NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB)nation's top teams, was ranked No. 41 by Sagarin
Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the NCAA nowfollowing its 23-3 home victory over Virginia.
calls the Football Championship (FC) Subdivision)5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia Tech,
teams.was rated No. 57 after the loss. Georgia Tech was
You will have to forgive the NCAA for taking titlesrated No. 2. The Irish failed to score a touchdown for
that have been used for years and are perfectlythe first time ever in their home opener.
clear, then renaming them and creating confusion in6) Temple (ranked No. 143 after its opening loss) and
the process.Buffalo (ranked No. 145 after its opening loss) face
If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its superioroff in week two. Both teams are among the 7 worst
power, it does so by making everything more difficultDivision I-A teams in the country, joining
and confusing, similar to your United StatesLouisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and Florida
government and its IRS tax code which could reduceInternational.
a sane person to tears just reading it.7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and 123 AA
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical measure ofschools, make up the Sagarin College Football Ratings.
a team's strength.The worst-rated A school is Florida International at
A hypothetical victory margin is determined byNo. 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and their
comparing the rating of the two teams after addingplay reflects their rating. The worst-rated AA school
2.93 points to the home team. The home edge willis the No. 242 La Salle Explorers. La Salle is a Catholic
vary during the season.university located in Philadelphia.
Only Division I (both A and AA) are counted forLa Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus 28-0. Ursinus
rating and schedule strength during the season.is not a planet but a real liberal arts college in
A diminishing-returns principle exists to prevent teamsPennsylvania.
from building up ratings by running up large victoryUrsinus College is not a Division 1 school (which
margins against weak teams. Instead, it rewardsincludes the 242 teams with La Salle), not a Division II
teams that do well against good opponents.team (which includes another 157 teams), but a
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does not factorDivision III team. Now you can better understand
in scoring margin. For Sagarin ratings and morewhy La Salle College is ranked last among 242
detailed information go to:Division I schools.
USA Today, the largest circulation newspaper in theThe first job for La Salle this year will be to score a
United States, is the nation's daily newspaper andtouchdown, or any points, including a field goal or
carries the Sagarin College Football Ratings. Thetouchback. The Explorers next job will be to actually
ratings are updated following each week's games andwin a game. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.